Un bon resume des idees de "Collapse of complex Societies" (traduit sur le site ContreInfo malheureusement inactif depuis longtemps) : http://contreinfo.info/article.php3?id_article=1883
"Complex societies arise as efficient solutions to problems. At first, relatively little investment in complexity yields great benefits. But eventually, diminishing returns kicks in, and greater and greater investment produces less and less benefit. Finally, the point is reached where investment in complexity can no longer yield any increase in benefits. Collapse becomes increasingly probable. At that point, a crisis the society easily weathered earlier in its history - a military loss, drought, resource depletion, etc. - is enough to cause collapse."